[PacoMartin]

Subaru forecast a 28% jump YoY in unit sales (globally) on May 13th for the FYE 2023 (starts April 1). So far US sales are down 18%.

US sales Year over Year. BRZ sales increase relatively meaningless as the BRZ was not being produced in 2021

2nd QTR​	Model (US sales)​	1st half​
-59%​	Forester​	-47%​
-31%​	Impreza​	-17%​
-35%​	WRX/STI​	-56%​
+17%​	Ascent​	+9%​
+3%​	Legacy​	-5%​
-4%​	Outback​	-12%​
+401%​	BRZ​	+131%​
+12%​	Crosstrek​	+9%​
-18%​	TOTAL​	-18%​

 

[ImprezaSport_17]

There is so much going in this world - it’s amazing it’s “almost” business as usual and sales are not worse to be honest …... thanks for sharing

 

[PacoMartin]

There is so much going in this world - it’s amazing it’s “almost” business as usual and sales are not worse to be honest …...

Yes an 18% drop in sales is actually a lot less than many other automakers. The exchange rate which is hovering around 135 JPY to USD is probably the most important thing. About 75%-80% of Subarus are sold in the US and Canada so when those revenues are converted to Japanese Yen at these exchange rates, the bottom line looks a lot better. When the exchange rate dropped a decade ago, Subaru was really struggling.

By the same token, vehicles assembled in Japan and sold in the US suffer from very high labor costs. It is probably one of the reason why Forester and WRX sales are so low this year. Also Subaru will have very little incentive to sell any more than the 6000 Solterras it contracted for as they are all assembled in Japan.
Table of Japanese Yen to USD

109.8​	12/31/2021​
106.7​	12/31/2020​
109.0​	12/31/2019​
110.4​	12/31/2018​
112.1​	12/31/2017​
108.8​	12/31/2016​
121.1​	12/31/2015​
105.9​	12/31/2014​
97.6​	12/31/2013​
79.8​	12/31/2012​
79.8​	12/31/2011​
87.8​	12/31/2010​
93.6​	12/31/2009​
103.5​	12/31/2008​
117.8​	12/31/2007​
116.3​	12/31/2006​
110.0​	12/31/2005​
108.1​	12/31/2004​
115.8​	12/31/2003​
125.5​	12/31/2002​
121.4​	12/31/2001​
107.8​	12/31/2000​

 

[cbidwell91]

Yeah we are lucky to be a small manufacturer because we are building sold units, rather dealing with full lots of previous model year vehicles awaiting chips. Its positioning us well in the current environment.

 

[PacoMartin]

Yeah we are lucky to be a small manufacturer because we are building sold units...

Subaru's global website publishes the total Indiana production per month, but not the individual production of each model.

Indiana production is usually larger than the US sales, which I always figured was because of Canadian sales. But then it seems like the excess is too small.

When sales of one model drop by a lot, like Impreza dropping below 1000 in July 2021, I always figured it was because of chip shortages means you have to choose one model not to produce. The obvious choice is the cheapest model.

US sales​	Impreza​	Ascent​	Legacy​	Outback​	US Sales​	Production Indiana​
Jun-22​	2,124​	5,603​	2,026​	13,135​	​	​
May-22​	1,743​	5,402​	2,392​	14,724​	24,261​	24,154​
Apr-22​	1,671​	5,228​	2,397​	16,510​	25,806​	26,548​
Mar-22​	2,329​	4,047​	2,611​	13,808​	22,795​	26,842​
Feb-22​	3,520​	5,181​	1,417​	8,637​	18,755​	20,910​
Jan-22​	2,939​	5,470​	1,492​	10,527​	20,428​	24,562​
Dec-21​	4,156​	6,088​	1,729​	12,643​	24,616​	24,128​
Nov-21​	4,300​	5,628​	1,027​	10,454​	21,409​	25,791​
Oct-21​	3,512​	5,221​	1,315​	8,548​	18,596​	25,254​
Sep-21​	3,665​	4,208​	1,419​	7,082​	16,374​	15,155​
Aug-21​	1,287​	5,418​	1,980​	14,219​	22,904​	20,023​
Jul-21​	706​	5,044​	2,375​	14,058​	22,183​	22,234​
Jun-21​	1,657​	5,192​	2,051​	16,394​	25,294​	23,733​
May-21​	2,946​	4,310​	2,101​	13,994​	23,351​	28,535​
Apr-21​	3,447​	4,398​	2,464​	15,728​	26,037​	14,353​
Mar-21​	3,636​	5,111​	2,325​	17,053​	28,125​	20,628​
Feb-21​	2,708​	4,619​	2,234​	12,666​	22,227​	24,234​
Jan-21​	2,771​	4,743​	1,746​	11,784​	21,044​	25,578​
​	​	​	​	​	384,205​	392,662​

 

[cbidwell91]

Subaru's global website publishes the total Indiana production per month, but not the individual production of each model.

Indiana production is usually larger than the US sales, which I always figured was because of Canadian sales. But then it seems like the excess is too small.

When sales of one model drop by a lot, like Impreza dropping below 1000 in July 2021, I always figured it was because of chip shortages means you have to choose one model not to produce. The obvious choice is the cheapest model.

US sales​	Impreza​	Ascent​	Legacy​	Outback​	US Sales​	Production Indiana​
Jun-22​	2,124​	5,603​	2,026​	13,135​	​	​
May-22​	1,743​	5,402​	2,392​	14,724​	24,261​	24,154​
Apr-22​	1,671​	5,228​	2,397​	16,510​	25,806​	26,548​
Mar-22​	2,329​	4,047​	2,611​	13,808​	22,795​	26,842​
Feb-22​	3,520​	5,181​	1,417​	8,637​	18,755​	20,910​
Jan-22​	2,939​	5,470​	1,492​	10,527​	20,428​	24,562​
Dec-21​	4,156​	6,088​	1,729​	12,643​	24,616​	24,128​
Nov-21​	4,300​	5,628​	1,027​	10,454​	21,409​	25,791​
Oct-21​	3,512​	5,221​	1,315​	8,548​	18,596​	25,254​
Sep-21​	3,665​	4,208​	1,419​	7,082​	16,374​	15,155​
Aug-21​	1,287​	5,418​	1,980​	14,219​	22,904​	20,023​
Jul-21​	706​	5,044​	2,375​	14,058​	22,183​	22,234​
Jun-21​	1,657​	5,192​	2,051​	16,394​	25,294​	23,733​
May-21​	2,946​	4,310​	2,101​	13,994​	23,351​	28,535​
Apr-21​	3,447​	4,398​	2,464​	15,728​	26,037​	14,353​
Mar-21​	3,636​	5,111​	2,325​	17,053​	28,125​	20,628​
Feb-21​	2,708​	4,619​	2,234​	12,666​	22,227​	24,234​
Jan-21​	2,771​	4,743​	1,746​	11,784​	21,044​	25,578​
​	​	​	​	​	384,205​	392,662​

We also build foreign exports which won't show up on the US sales chart (not just Canada). Also keep in mind production vs sales aren't always the same month. Even if we have a cars that aren't sold units, they aren't on lots for long. My point being we are positioned much better than others due to our size.

Chip shortages are just one item that are causing issues. We are struggling to get random parts which causes line disruptions across all models, some parts aren't even electronics. Impreza has been hit hard recently.

 

[PacoMartin]

We also build foreign exports which won't show up on the US sales chart (not just Canada).

According to the EPA automtive trends report, 24% of Subarus sold in the US for the year 2020 were turbocharged. So 24% of 611,942 = 146,866, and we know

• 21,178 WRX sales in 2020
• 67,623 Ascent sales in 2020

which implies 58,065 Legacy XTs and Outback XTs were sold in the US in 2020 or roughly 1 in 3 Legacies and Outbacks.

 

[PacoMartin]

Indiana Production YoY	Calendar	US sales # vehicles YoY
22.4%​	CY 2017​	5.3%​
-1.1%​	CY 2018​	5.0%​
2.5%​	CY 2019​	2.9%​
-14.7%​	CY 2020​	-12.6%​
-14.3%​	CY 2021​	-4.6%​
8.5%​	CY 2022​	-17.9%​

Indiana Production soared in 2017 when Subaru shifted 5th generation Impreza production to the United States. So far in 2022 Indiana production has been increasing by 8.5% while US sales are still dropping. Japanese production is down 1.2%.

For FYE2022 the Subaru exchange rate was ¥112/US$ and ¥130/EURO. Corporate executives projeced ¥120/US$ and ¥130/EURO for FYE2023

On May 13, 2022 Subaru executives forecast profits for FYE2023 of more than double FYE2022 (measured in Japanese Yen) based on a 28% global increase in vehicle sales. Obviously that sales rebound seems unlikely.
But right now the exchange rate is much more positive for Subaru ¥138/US$ and ¥141/EURO (the weakest the JPY has been in decades). Also the US MSRP for 2023 is significantly higher than 2022.

Even though US sales for 2022 may end up back to 2014 levels, it is possible that Subaru corporation's profits will still be better than last fiscal year because of

• the increased Indiana production,
• the exchange rate and
• the higher prices.

Possibly double is a bit optimistic, but some things are going in Subaru's favor.

 

[pbunn1953]

And my local dealers are screwing the customers by marking up above MSRP

 

[PacoMartin]

And my local dealers are screwing the customers by marking up above MSRP

I don't know if you are talking about

• Subaru of Cherry Hill or

• Prestige Subaru of Turnersville NJ
  
  But that practice was widely discouraged by corporate. What I found that Faulkner did was to sell only vehicles at MSRP, but they were frequently very expensive trims and loaded with tons of options.
• Faulkner Subaru - Bethlehem 330 Stoke Park Rd Bethlehem, PA 18017
• Faulkner Subaru - Harrisburg 3233 Paxton Road Harrisburg, PA 17111
• Faulkner Subaru - Mechanicsburg 6629 Carlisle Pike Mechanicsburg, PA 17050

 

[PacoMartin]

Subaru's July 2022 US sales figures were just posted and the Crosstrek clearly dominates for the month. While Forester sales have been anemic for 4 months, in July Outback sales were also low.

• 14,076 Crosstrek
• 8,638 Outback
• 7,737 Forester
• 4,489 Ascent
• 34,940 SUV total

Subaru car sales remain poor, especially the BRZ which has not broken 350 in a month for all of 2022.

• 2,530 WRX
• 2,228 Impreza
• 1,610 Legacy
• 228 BRZ
• 6,596 car total

Impreza seems to be hanging in there.

 

[MagikAram]

I'm surprised BRZ sales are so low, I wonder how many produced are earmarked for Toyota showrooms vs Subaru, and what the sales number is for the 86

 

[PacoMartin]

I'm surprised BRZ sales are so low, I wonder how many produced are earmarked for Toyota showrooms vs Subaru, and what the sales number is for the 86

For first 6 months of 2022 sales in the United States were:

• 1,663 BRZ
• 6,177 GR86

Obviously this table is a bit premature since the new generation BRZ has not been on sales for a full 12 months, but it compares US sales of the BRZ when it first delivered to the States in May 2012 to the last 12 months ending in July 2022.

2012/2013 BRZ sales	2021/2022 BRZ Sales
271​	0​
818​	0​
498​	1​
623​	24​
508​	505​
402​	1,069​
527​	331​
497​	349​
463​	291​
420​	298​
905​	201​
812​	193​
6,744​	3,262​

But the only models that are doing better in 2022 than in 2021 are the Ascent and the Crosstrek. So it is very difficult to gage what is a production issue and what is a demand issue.

But the 228 hp BRZ now faces more competition from both the bottom and top end than it did in 2012. For example

• In North America, the 2019 MX-5 now comes standard with a 1,998 cc engine rated at 181 hp at 7000 rpm and 151 lb⋅ft at 4000 rpm. The previous version only had 170 hp in 2012.
• In 2023 Toyota will be releasing the GR Corolla with up to 300 hp
• Hyundai N line | Elantra N | Veloster N | Kona N | Ioniq 5 N (2023 model)

 

[PacoMartin]

Change in US sales for first 7 months of 2022 vs first 7 months of 2021.

6.0%​	Ascent​	Indiana​
8.4%​	Crosstrek​	Japan​
-15.4%​	Outback​	Indiana​
-45.8%​	Forester​	Japan​
​	​	​
-7.4%​	Impreza​	Indiana​
-8.8%​	Legacy​	Indiana​
-47.3%​	WRX​	Japan​
130.7%​	BRZ​	Japan​
​	​	​
-17.8%​	TOTAL​	​

The huge percentage change in BRZ sales is not surprising since sales last year were only from units left on the lot. Subaru Corporation stopped producing the 2020 BRZ in July 2020, as they didn't make a 2021 model year.

Torque News has suggested that the drop in Forester sales is because there is no turbocharged variant like the Outback. But as the turbo Forester has not existed now for four years, this explanation seems unlikely. Personally, I feel that even though the Forester has a higher base price than the Crosstrek, Crosstrek buyers are younger and are more likely to purchase the higher trims and options making the Crosstrek the more profitable vehicle. So given the production problems in Japan choices are made in favor of the Crosstrek.

Torque News has also suggested that the WRX would sell better as a hatchback than a sedan. Also the decision to not update the STI has made the WRX lose some of its luster. Certainly the excitement greeting Toyota's GR Corolla has eclipsed the new generation of WRX which is a mere 3 hp improvement over the last generation.

The uptick in Ascent sales is a little bit of a surprise considering the terrible reviews that it receives, which are uncharacteristicly harsh for a Subaru. Personally, I think the 3 row vehicle popularity defies increasing gasoline prices, and sales are going up for all brands.

Overall US sales for 2021 were at the 2015 level, and will probably drop below 2014 level for 2022 unless there is a massive change in part availability. Subaru's forecase of a 28% global increase in numbers of vehicles sold this fiscal year beginning 1 April seems extremely unlikely since over 70% of Subaru sales are in the US.

583,810​	2021​
700,117​	2019​
582,675​	2015​
513,693​	2014​
424,683​	2013​